Over $186bn in capital expenditure will be spent over the lifetime of the top 10 offshore gas projects to produce 299 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData. These 10 projects, selected from 156 upcoming offshore projects globally, will contribute incremental capacity of 15,200 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) to global gas supply by 2025. Barzan, a planned shallow water field in Qatar, is the largest with anticipated peak production at 5,580 mmcfd in 2030 at an estimated cost of $17bn.
GlobalData reports the average development breakeven gas price for top upcoming offshore gas projects at $3.1 per thousand cubic feet (mcf), with projects in offshore Iran having the lowest breakeven price at $1 per mcf and projects in offshore Mozambique – the highest at $6 per mcf. The company notes that two of the top ten global offshore projects do not meet the return threshold of 10% for internal rate of return, necessitating reductions in capital expenditure or better gas markets. Shallow water South Pars Phase 13 in Iran has the highest net present value per barrel of oil equivalent at $2.1.
GlobalData estimates $186bn will be spent to bring the top ten offshore gas projects online, with $83.4bn forecast by 2025. Early-stage shallow water Sakhalin 3 (Kirinskoye South (Yuzhno-Kirinskoye) in Russia leads capital investment with $38.3bn over its development lifetime, followed by Mamba Complex and Prosperidade in ultra-deepwater Mozambique with $34.7bn and US$28.7bn respectively.
Differentiating for water depth, GlobalData expects full-cycle capital expenditure per barrel of oil equivalent to average $3.1 for shallow water, $5.3 for ultra-deepwater, and $7.5 for deepwater.